Selected Daily Musings

 

October 8, 2001

Have been a little remiss in updating page as have shifted to a longer term outlook and have shifted elements of portfolio to healthcare and energy but still retaining some tech with value. Check out US Selections for latest thoughts. There are some gems in there!! Look at the new Healthcare section for some interesting ideas; note that these are all US NASDAQ traded stocks; once again some interesting items in there.

 

Until next time, keep some of your powder dry because we are in an opportune time the next couple of months. When things look the grimmest, buying opportunities arise.

 

May 21, 2001

Too bad that I didn't learn my lesson and cut my losses sooner; always thinking that this is ridiculous and it shouldn't be at this level. Then watched it go daily to new higher levels!!! Finally go out at $48.62; thanks for small mercies as it rose to $55 afterwards. A stock controlled by insiders and with little float sure will screw you on a short!

 

I have built a model portfolio of US stocks that would suit an investor and we can track its performance below. It has a balance between high growth tech, old staid cash generators and energy stocks which will be hot for at least another year.

 

Daily Lesson

        Before you short, look at the insider and institution positions. DIGL had 110% controlled by these.

        Set your stops and get out; if blown through, then still get out asap. Don't wait!!!

 

 

April 26, 2001

Wahoo, what a ride with  DIGL!!! Yesterday watched it go from $35 to $39 and this morning saw it gap up at pre-open from about $40 and go to $43 just after open. Wow the buying pressure sure was there! Held my course, although down about 12 points or 33%, as this can't go on and it will sink by May 2nd, see puts & calls ratio as an indicator and also past month end. It sure was a struggle, as the buying pressure would come in to support falling prices, see attached DIGL chart . Eventually sanity took over in the afternoon and it started to slide and ended down at $38. Bring on Friday and lots of bad market news!! Just think if I were long this pig!!

 

PAYX and ORCL had runs up on the 25th and then gave them all back today; coming back to playing range.

 

Daily Lesson

        You have to have a cast iron stomach to short and don't ever do it on margin.

 

 

April 24, 2001

Well got in to short DIGL on the 19th, got it at $31.81 in the morning which turned out to be the low of the day, a bad omen already. Now I put a stop limit at $33 and left the trading floor. Shock of shocks when I returned it was in the $35 range; thought that I was OK but it had blown right through the limit without execution. Put in a new limit at $35.50 and left again; guess what? blew through that one also without closing position, oh yeah bought 5 shares and now am stuck with an odd lot. Watched it go to $40 mark in the next 2 days and then finally retreat $4 on Monday. The opening on Tuesday looked good as it was down $2 but by noon that had evaporated and we were at $39.75 then it started to slide to close at about $34.93. What a rollercoaster ride. During all of this, could see "Buzz and Batch" at work; this thing has no reason to be where it is and should realistically be in the $20s.

 

PAYX in range and ORCL coming down well. Canadian Oil & Gas CMT and BOU have had a nice run recently, look like the identified VRM pattern may be coming in now; guess I was too early at the $9.50 range.

 

Daily Lesson

        When Buzz and Batch go to work on your stock, outrageous things will happen but eventually they will move on and normality may be restored.

 

April 18, 2001

What a difference a couple of days make. If you were in, Greenspan gave you a quick 10% gift. My trailing stop on Oracle kicked in in the last hour's downdraft and got me out at $17.85, a profitable out. Tried to get a short in on DIGL at $31.20 but was not successful; way too much exuberance for an OK earning report, after all, still tied in to telco fortunes. Let's see about it tomorrow morning. Expect some retrenchment and then will get back into ORCL and perhaps PAYX or STXN.

 

Daily Lesson

        Sometimes you get lucky

 

April 16, 2001

A real long time since the last update eh!!! Other pleasant activities have occupied me and therefore have not been trading on a daily basis. Capital preservation has been the theme and with that have concentrated on non-tech stocks. In Canada, have played heavily on the junior oil & gas sector, especially companies which have significant gas exposures. My Oil & Gas Best Plays, one has already been bought and they're sniffing the others; quick 25% gainers!! It's cheaper to go drilling on Bay St. then in the hinterlands!! In the US, now that the wind has been knocked out of the tech sails, things are slowly returning to more rational valuations and some good long terms buys are appearing. How can you refuse Oracle at $13.25? What a difference 9 months make!!

You can play these trades, when PAYX reaches low $34.50 - $35 range buy then sell it at the $39 - $40 range; buy DIGL in the $15 range and dump it around $22. Pattern has been relatively consistent for these over the past months.

 

Daily Lesson

        Yes it can always go even lower.

        Tight stop limits, 5%, have to be adhered to to ensure capital preservation. Better to be stopped out than ride something to a level from which you wont recover.

 

 

August 27, 2000

No updates for a long time eh!!! Too busy doing other things and have not been trading on a daily basis. The last trade which I made was to go long AFCI and ATML on August 3rd. Notice how this is near their bottom!! Am going to ride these for a while; I expect at least $54 for AFCI and $45 for ATML by mid September. Not bad if I get it.

 

At the beginning of August there sure was a lot value sitting around; if you didnít get blown out before, it made for a great entry point.

 

Daily Lesson

        No hike in August but effect of previous will affect these stocks sometimes soon; donít expect outrageous new highs but rather look for new lows from which to get a bounce play.

        Donít force a trade. If there is nothing, then do nothing. Sometimes it is better to stay with what youíve got and ride it.

        Watch last week in October for funds tax-loss selling which should affect small cap stocks which havenít done stellarly.

 

 

May 17, 2000

So you havenít seen anything new from me in the last few; well have been keeping my head low and avoiding the fire until the FOMC effect settles down. Closed out all positions for a profit in the up-market on Friday, no trades on Monday, did a couple of quick in/out profitable trades (ALSC, MFNX) before 2:15 on Tuesday. Anticipated that market would open down big on Wednesday and looked for an opportunity to grab something for the bounce. Tried MFNX but couldnít get in, got in on IFCI .

 

Took the rest of the day off and went golfing and had a great day.

 

Daily Lesson

        This 50 hike has got to affect these stocks sometimes soon; donít expect new highs but rather look for new lows from which to get a bounce play.

        Donít force a trade. If there is nothing, then do nothing.

 

 

May 9, 2000

 

An interesting day. Closed out IFCI after it moved up but then moved down below my price. Took small loss.

At same time MFNX did the same and in the interest of capital preservation, bailed out quick.

 

Heard that ATHM was moving based on takeover rumour. Chart looked great as it had ramped from $18 to 22 and was rising quickly. Thought that I would take a quick flier; you know, in and out and take your 1 bagger. Things were moving quickly and I finally got in at $27. Baaad!! It immediately turned around and started to sink; was 24 7/16 when I was able to close out the position. Dumb play!! Entered too late in the cycle.

 

Things looked as if they had settled down to a predictable pattern in the afternoon. Was following AFCI, CSCO, ZOMX and MFNX closely as they appeared to have formed a bottom. The ^COMP was starting to move up and so were the previous. Entered into positions in AFCI and MFNX. I expect that CSCO earnings will be OK and we should have some slight positive at the opening tomorrow and should have an up pop in these and a chance to dump.

 

Trading volumes are still light and it appears the hedge funds have significant $$ on the sidelines and a lot of the mo traders have had significant haircuts thus removing their ďeffectivenessĒ in the market place. Itís going to be a stock pickers market just like it was last July/August. Looking at the QQQs for a short possibility building up to the FOMC.

 

Daily Lesson

        Because of uncertainty in the market and lots of opportunities building, resist the temptation to be 100%+ in positions.

        If you hear it on CNBC, itís too late to profit!!!